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As blue intensity (BI) methods are increasingly employed to generate temperature-sensitive tree-ring records around the globe, the influence of intra-site variation in elevation on climate-growth relationships for BI parameters remains largely unresolved. Here, we develop six latewood blue intensity (LWBI) chronologies along an elevational gradient for two montane conifer species, Abies concolor var. concolor (Gordon & Glend.) Lindl. Ex Hilderb and Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm., growing in the arid southwestern United States. In this first documented study to examine the climate response of LWBI from A. concolor, we find positive, significant (p < 0.05) correlations between the LWBI chronology from the highest elevation plot and spring–summer temperatures (April–August, r > 0.46). Moreover, the positive temperature response of A. concolor is generally stronger and more temporally stable than for P. engelmannii across varying seasonal windows. In comparing the differences in climate response across species and elevation, we document distinct clinal relationships between the temperature response of LWBI for A. concolor, where both the strength and temporal stability of the positive temperature signal increases with elevation. Meanwhile, the mid-elevation P. engelmannii demonstrate the highest climate sensitivity. As such, our findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of how elevation influences the type and strength of the climatic information embedded within the LWBI parameter from arid, montane conifers growing near their historical range margins. 

Abstract We present new climate field reconstructions (CFR) of tropical Pacific ENSO sea surface temperatures (HadISST) for the boreal winter season using a circum‐Pacific tree‐ring network from known El Niño rainfall impact regions. We use two different CFR methods: Point‐by‐Point Regression (PPR) and reduced‐space Orthogonal Spatial Regression (OSR). Both methods produce reconstructions with high validation skill, but OSR is preferred because it has less spatial noise and is more efficient. Only the leading EOF of the SST field (EOF1) can be skillfully reconstructed by either method; EOF2 does not validate. The success of EOF1 reflects its importance for ENSO rainfall impacts over land; the failure with EOF2 is from the lack of these impacts. EOF1 allows for the reconstruction of many ENSO indices, including the ENSO Longitudinal Index (ELI). We also find evidence in our reconstructions for a recent increase in ENSO activity. 

Delta blue intensity is a commonly used method to correct for the heartwood-sapwood color change in blue intensity (BI) measurements. It is based on the assumption that the heartwood-sapwood color change is similar in both earlywood and latewood. This assumption has not been supported physiologically. Furthermore, delta BI may confound the climate signals in earlywood and latewood BI as it is technically a linear combination of the other two. Here, instead of using delta BI, we used change point detection to identify the heartwood-sapwood transition, and corrected for the color change by rescaling the mean and variance of BI measurements after the transition to those immediately before. We tested three different change point detection methods and found that they agreed well with one another. Importantly, our approach preserves the climate signals in both earlywood and latewood BI data, while delta BI causes a total loss of climate signals in our test case. Therefore, we suggest that change point detection should be used instead of delta BI to account for the heartwood-sapwood color change. 

During summer 2010, exceptional heat and drought in western Russia (WRU) occurred simultaneously with heavy rainfall and flooding in northern Pakistan (NPK). Here, we use the Great Eurasian Drought Atlas (GEDA), a new 1,021 year tree-ring reconstruction of summer soil moisture, to investigate the variability and dynamics of this exceptional spatially concurrent climate extreme over the last millennium. Summer 2010 in the GEDA was the second driest year over WRU and the largest wet–dry contrast between NPK and WRU; it was also the second warmest year over WRU in an independent 1,015 year temperature reconstruction. Soil moisture variability is only weakly correlated between the two regions and 2010 event analogues are rare, occurring in 31 (3.0%) or 52 (5.1%) years in the GEDA, depending on the definition used. Post-1900 is significantly drier in WRU and wetter in NPK compared to previous centuries, increasing the likelihood of concurrent wet NPK–dry WRU extremes, with over 20% of the events in the record occurring in this interval. The dynamics of wet NPK–dry WRU events like 2010 are well captured by two principal components in the GEDA, modes correlated with ridging over northern Europe and western Russia and a pan-hemispheric extratropical wave train pattern similar to that observed in 2010. Our results highlight how high resolution paleoclimate reconstructions can be used to capture some of the most extreme events in the climate system, investigate their physical drivers, and allow us to assess their behavior across longer timescales than available from shorter instrumental records. 

Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history. 

Abstract Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) combine modern observational data with paleoclimatic proxies to estimate climate variables over spatiotemporal grids during time periods when widespread observations of climatic conditions do not exist. The Common Era (CE) has been a period over which many seasonally‐ and annually‐resolved CFRs have been produced on regional to global scales. CFRs over the CE were first produced in the 1970s using dendroclimatic records and linear regression‐based approaches. Since that time, many new CFRs have been produced using a wide range of proxy data sets and reconstruction techniques. We assess the early history of research on CFRs for the CE, which provides context for our review of advances in CFR research over the last two decades. We review efforts to derive gridded hydroclimatic CFRs over continental regions using networks of tree‐ring proxies. We subsequently explore work to produce hemispheric‐ and global‐scale CFRs of surface temperature using multi‐proxy data sets, before specifically reviewing recently‐developed data assimilation techniques and how they have been used to produce simultaneous reconstructions of multiple climatic fields globally. We then review efforts to develop standardized and digitized databases of proxy networks for use in CFR research, before concluding with some thoughts on important next steps for CFR development. 

Across western North America (WNA), 20th-21st century anthropogenic warming has increased the prevalence and severity of concurrent drought and heat events, also termed hot droughts. However, the lack of independent spatial reconstructions of both soil moisture and temperature limits the potential to identify these events in the past and to place them in a long-term context. We develop the Western North American Temperature Atlas (WNATA), a data-independent 0.5° gridded reconstruction of summer maximum temperatures back to the 16th century. Our evaluation of the WNATA with existing hydroclimate reconstructions reveals an increasing association between maximum temperature and drought severity in recent decades, relative to the past five centuries. The synthesis of these paleo-reconstructions indicates that the amplification of the modern WNA megadrought by increased temperatures and the frequency and spatial extent of compound hot and dry conditions in the 21st century are likely unprecedented since at least the 16th century. 

Abstract Contextualizing current increases in Northern Hemisphere temperatures is precluded by the short instrumental record of the pastca.120 years and the dearth of temperature-sensitive proxy records, particularly at lower latitudes south of <50 °N. We develop a network of 29 blue intensity chronologies derived from tree rings ofTsuga canadensis(L.) Carrière andPicea rubensSarg. trees distributed across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast USA (MANE)—a region underrepresented by multi-centennial temperature records. We use this network to reconstruct mean March-September air temperatures back to 1461 CE based on a model that explains 62% of the instrumental temperature variance from 1901−1976 CE. Since 1998 CE, MANE summer temperatures are consistently the warmest within the context of the past 561 years exceeding the 1951−1980 mean of +1.3 °C. Cool summers across MANE were frequently volcanically forced, with significant (p<0.05) temperature departures associated with 80% of the largest tropical (n=13) and extratropical (n=15) eruptions since 1461 CE. Yet, we find that more of the identified cool events in the record were likely unforced by volcanism and either related to stochastic variability or atmospheric circulation via significant associations (p<0.05) to regional, coastal sea-surface temperatures, 500-hpa geopotential height, and 300-hpa meridional and zonal wind vectors. Expanding the MANE network to the west and south and combining it with existing temperature-sensitive proxies across North America is an important next step toward producing a gridded temperature reconstruction field for North America. 

Abstract Extreme summer temperatures are increasingly common across the Northern Hemisphere and inflict severe socioeconomic and biological consequences. In summer 2021, the Pacific Northwest region of North America (PNW) experienced a 2-week-long extreme heatwave, which contributed to record-breaking summer temperatures. Here, we use tree-ring records to show that summer temperatures in 2021, as well as the rate of summertime warming during the last several decades, are unprecedented within the context of the last millennium for the PNW. In the absence of committed efforts to curtail anthropogenic emissions below intermediate levels (SSP2–4.5), climate model projections indicate a rapidly increasing risk of the PNW regularly experiencing 2021-like extreme summer temperatures, with a 50% chance of yearly occurrence by 2050. The 2021 summer temperatures experienced across the PNW provide a benchmark and impetus for communities in historically temperate climates to account for extreme heat-related impacts in climate change adaptation strategies.